Global Wind Map

This is very cool:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=32.45,52.92,305

about: http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html

climate change - global warming

For the permanent record:  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/mar/22/why-global-warming-skeptics-are-wrong/

more on climate change denial

Haven't written too much lately on climate change, but I do like to post links to reasoned analysis especially where it applies to debunking debunkers.

A good example is an article at realclimate.org  entitled:  "Forbes’ rich list of nonsense" - talking about a recent article in Forbes.   Here is the article on realclimate.org - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/01/forbes-rich-list-of-nonsense/.

Thanks to boingboing for publicizing it: http://www.boingboing.net/2011/01/10/climatologists-pick.html

And from World Resources, an evocative photo:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/26107309@N05/3525028997/

Walden Pond and Climate Change

Harvard researchers have published a paper on the effect of climate change on the Walden Pond area.  Important to understand is how climate change can enable and strengthen the hand of invasive species. Interestingly, data from Thoreau's own journals were useful in this research.  Relevant snippet from the summary:

"Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species."

Here is the link thread to the paper.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/how-climate-is-changing-walden-pond.html

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2010/02/when-success-spells-defeat/

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0008878

We often walk in these woods so its fun to find information that helps us understand and appreciate our local area in more detail.

climate science accuracy, advocacy

This article in the Washington Post captures some of my feelings about the issues raised by (in my opinion) carelessness in how climate science results have been communicated, or not.

See: "Series of missteps.... "

One of the fantastic qualities of the scientific method is focus on reproducibility of results; share your data, analysis, and conclusions, and others can verify or not your results.   Opinion and advocacy is welcome; both are separate from the scientific process.  Rely on science for scientific results; engage the political sphere to determine policy.

thinking about climate change

In the past I've tried to link to thoughtful information about climate change.   Here is more useful information and analysis that helps puts opinions like those of George Will in perspective.

From The Loom: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/loom/2009/07/23/george-wills-crack-fact-checkers-continue-their-nap/

why progress is hard

This insightful blog post by Julian Sanchez  demonstrates, here in the context of climate change debates, why making ratonal progress in the public sphere can be so hard.

see: http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/

Money snippet:

Actually, I have a possible advantage here as a peddler of horseshit: I need only worry about what sounds plausible. If my opponent is trying to explain what’s true, he may be constrained to introduce concepts that take a while to explain and are hard to follow, trying the patience (and perhaps wounding the ego) of the audience.

efficient, but fun

Like we said, who says great mileage can't be fun?  The CR-Z looks good...

We can solve the climate crisis.

We can solve the climate crisis.

"The We Campaign is a project of The Alliance for Climate Protection --  a nonprofit, nonpartisan effort founded by Nobel laureate former Vice President Al Gore. Our ultimate aim is to halt global warming"

Worth checking into.  Organized citizens may be able to add a strong voice to the debate - otherwise the risk is policies will be driven by vested interests  for their benefit.

Pickens on energy independence

The Speculist embeds this video outlining T. Boone Pickens plan for US energy independence.  I'm not so sure independance is the key factor, but developing multiple scalable alternatives to oil and other caron-based energy sources is nothing but a good idea.

"Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms"

from the Washington Post, Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms

impact snippet:

"This report addresses one of the most frequently asked questions about global warming: What will happen to weather and climate extremes?" said one of the report's two co-chairs, Thomas R. Karl, who directs of NOAA's National Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C.. He added that the report, which synthesizes the findings of more than 100 academic papers, "concludes that we are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events."

So, no surprise here I guess. Seems to me the 20th century was filled with chaos of our own making that we had the capacity to deal with. The 21st century may be filled with chaos of differing types that may be beyond our ability to deal with - with unfortunate consequences. But, I'm an optimist, relentlessly, so I assume even if some mayhem ensues, we'll come out the other side. (or maybe we're laying the groundwork for local implementation of The Great Filter.)

Here is a link to the actual report: Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

Freeman Dyson on The Question of Global Warming

Freeman Dyson discusses the subject of global warming as covered in two books in this review in The New York Review of Books.

Freeman Dyson is scary smart, clear thinking, and expresses himself logically. I find it useful to pay attention to him because he provides insight lacking in conventional opinion. I recommend reading the article.

Updates: On the political scene:

Global warming bill faces stiff GOP opposition
and,
NASA watchdog says press office distorted climate studies

On this last point - seems to me you can do the science and then have a healthy political and/or policy debate regarding what to do about the scientific results. If the scientific results are in error or have bias, other scientists will delight in exposing the problem. Something about scientific method and inquiry and all that. If you allow politicians to determine scientific results; well, then you have Lysenkoism.

"Civilization's last chance"

From Bill McKibben in the LA Times: Civilization's last chance

Here is the money snippet:

There's a number -- a new number -- that makes this point most powerfully. It may now be the most important number on Earth: 350. As in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

A few weeks ago, NASA's chief climatologist, James Hansen, submitted a paper to Science magazine with several coauthors. The abstract attached to it argued -- and I have never read stronger language in a scientific paper -- that "if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm."

Also, here is McKibben's 350.org

ethanol

Is ethanol the answer? I think not, and not just because of the food vs fuel dynamic, as described here in the Washington Post: Siphoning Off Corn to Fuel Our Cars.

This column in the New York Sun by Harold Furchtgott-Roth offers useful links explaining why ethanol is not the answer.

So, probably corn-based ethanol is not the direction we should be taking for fuel diversity and supply.

We can talk about corn monoculture in another post...

energy not growing on trees

A good perspective from a scientist on the biofuels conundrum.

Seems to me the biofuel debate will get muddied by the political issues associated with agribusiness.

I do enjoy Cosmic Variance, albeit as a layman.

No Sun link to climate change

This BBC News post refers to scientific research that indicates global warming is not solely a result of changes in the the amount of radiation from the sun. See: 'No Sun link' to climate change

Lede:

Scientists have produced further compelling evidence showing that modern-day climate change is not caused by changes in the Sun's activity.

Climate change debunkers will start to try to debunk this research as well, I suppose. Sigh.

glaciers continue to retreat

See this post on CNN.com. Bottom line -

Haeberli said glaciers lost an average of about a foot of ice a year between 1980 and 1999. But since the turn of the millennium the average loss has increased to about 20 inches.

Glacial melting seems like a good example of possible climate change. Its probably useful to remember the distinction between climate and weather, and this NASA article is a good place to start: What's the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

UPDATE: more context from Universe Today on arctic ice.

$20T climate change cost?

See UN: climate change may cost $20 trillion from Yahoo News.

Relevant snippet:

UNITED NATIONS - Global warming could cost the world up to $20 trillion over two decades for cleaner energy sources and do the most harm to people who can least afford to adapt, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warns in a new report.

Still seems to me this is an opportunity for economic, scientific, and commercial innovation.

"More Evidence We've Entered the End of Oil"

More Evidence We've Entered the End of Oil is a posting in WIRED's blog network that discusses the end of oil meme in the context of an article in the Wall Street Journal.

Seems to me in addition to the geo-data about quantities of recoverable oil, there is also the psycho-data that indicates human institutions are starting to formulate what a post-oil world might look like. This is a significant step, in my opinion, in bringing about change. I assume the rate of chance will be non-linear, and that over time, perhaps less time than we imagine, the momentum of non-oil energy sources in the market will increase significantly.

more on VCs tackle green

from CNN Money, an article focused on Al Gore getting hands-on with the VC community in their efforts to marshal entrepreneurial efforts to turn energy problems into energy opportunities. In my opinion, this is worth reading - as I've noted before, unleashing our economic system can address environmental problems and create wealth.

see: Al Gore's next act: Planet-saving VC

relevant snippet:

According to Doerr, by 2009 more than a third of Kleiner's latest fund, which was raised in 2006 and totals $600 million, will be invested in technologies that aim to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. Already Kleiner has invested more than $270 million from various funds in 26 companies that make everything from microbes that scrub old oil wells to electric cars to noncorn ethanol. Twelve of Kleiner's 22 partners now spend some or all of their time on green investments.

however, the catch:

There is, however, one thing standing in their way. Five years after Kleiner Perkins made its first green investment, the firm hasn't had one "exit" -- VC-speak for an IPO or a sale of a company that validates the investment thesis. Doerr equates this moment to Internet investing (which he famously called "the greatest legal creation of wealth in the history of the planet") before Kleiner took a certain search engine public in 1995. Now, he wonders, "what's the company that will lead the boom? What's the Netscape of green innovation?"

Read the article!