enhancing cognition

This Nature article, Towards responsible use of cognitive-enhancing drugs by the healthy, argues that society should look favorably, and responsibly of course, on the prospects of pharmacological enhancement of cognition.  I see no credible arguments to the contrary.   Seems to me this society does not suffer from an IQ surplus.

Providing a classic real-life example of William Gibson's famous quote: "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." in action, here is the MicroNutrient Initiative:

dedicated to ensuring that the world's most vulnerable - especially women and children - in developing countries get the vitamins and minerals they need to survive and thrive. 

The irony - Some of us may struggle with the choices facing us regarding deciding to use supplements to enhance our cognitive function, while others in this world suffer undue hardship due to nutritional issues.   This NYT Op-Ed piece, Raising the World’s I.Q., sheds more light on cognitive deficits resulting from nutritional deficits.

from NYT: "In Hard Times, Fear Can Impair Decision-Making"

from Gregory Berns: see: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/jobs/07pre.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

in particular, the conclusion:

"...And right now there are incredible opportunities to do something differently. Yes, they’re risky, and some will fail. But while others wait for the storm to pass, I’m busy expanding into new areas. If I wait for money to start flowing again, the opportunities will have passed."

banana republic 2.0

Its been my thought for some time that our national economic, social, and military policy choices have increased the likelihood that we'll turn the USA into the world's biggest banana republic.   Certainly the current economic apocalypse might be a big step in that direction.  More on this topic, I'm sure.  For now, various outlets in the blogosphere have picked up this, I believe it originated with Barry Ritholtz.   Barry blogs at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

"In doing the research for the "Bailout Nation" book, I needed a way to put the dollar amounts into proper historical perspective. If we add in the Citi bailout, the total cost now exceeds $4.6165 trillion dollars.

People have a hard time conceptualizing very large numbers, so let’s give this some context. The current Credit Crisis bailout is now the largest outlay In American history.  Crunching the inflation adjusted numbers, we find the bailout has cost more than all of these big budget government expenditures – combined:

• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion
• Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion
• Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion
• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion
• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion
• The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)
• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion
• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion
• NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion

TOTAL: $3.92 trillion"

UPDATE: here is another accounting: http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/what_were_doing_--_and_spendin.php

wow - a new president-elect

I, for one, welcome our new overlords.

Watched Obama's victory speech upon winning the election.  Now the hard part begins, of course, but the historic nature of this election may give me an opportunity (for a time) to dial-back my customary cynicism - maybe we can make some needed progress.

It is about the future of course, and I hope this election opens the door to addressing problems in a forward-looking and effective way, not in ideological terms related to political or cultural wars of the past that seem to live on in the mental frames of most of our political leaders.   The world is changing, in many ways, and prescriptions based on the model of "pick your favorite previous decade" won't cut it.  We have to identify new approaches.

Anyway, most of the prediction markets and/or related polling site have been pretty accurate for some time.  Interestingly most news outlets seemed to consistenly position the race as closer than it really ever was.  

oops - funny McCain photo

 

from Yahoo! News

Snowblower

Our new snowblower:

predicting the 2008 presidential election

So, thanks to various corners of the blogosphere, I've found a few places that predict the election, including a couple using prediction market approaches.

Here are the 2008 Presidential quotes from the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Here is FiveThirtyEight.com.

Here is Intrade Prediction Markets.

Yahoo has its  Election 08 Political Dashboard.

UPDATE:  here are two more (thanks  Ned)

Electoral-vote.com

Election Projection.com

Mt Osceola (almost) hike

Last weekend we went to the White Mountains to hike, and chose Mt Osceola.  First, we drove up Friday and stayed at the Glynn House Victorian Inn in Ashland New Hampshire.  We had a great time - our hosts were gracious and friendly,  the inn is very well maintained, the rooms are clean and filled with amenities, evening wine was a treat, and the morning's breakfast was well-prepared and tasty.

Hiking Mt Osceola - East Peak - was a bit of a chore because we took the long path that visited the Greeley Ponds before taking us up the mountain.  It was a great day, we had a great hike, and caught a few more snapshots.

fisher cat

So this fella came right up to the house Sunday morning - in fact jumped on the deck and peered in through the window.   Hadn't seen him since the winter....


You have to look close....

Calibri and OpenOffice.org

Microsoft's Calibri font (proprietary, introduced in Vista and/or Office 2007)  has bugged me because Open Office doesn't have a good default fall-back for it.  Result is that documents are frequently un-readable.  (Makes one wonder if this was intentional - like the old rumor about "Windows isn't done until Lotus doesn't run...")

I finally found and settled on a good solution, for me anyway, described here http://www.oooninja.com/2008/02/metrical-equivalent-fonts-and-font.html, in particular, this recipe for font replacement:

"At the OpenOffice.org level, you can specify font replacement rules. That means whenever OpenOffice.org encounters font X, it will use font Y instead.

1. Open any OpenOffice.org application.
2. Click Tools > Options.
3. In the tree menu under OpenOffice.org, choose Fonts.
4. Check the box Apply replacement table.
5. Type the name of the Microsoft font in Font.
6. In Replace with, type the name of the non-Microsoft font.
7. Click the green checkmark.
8. Repeat steps 5-7 as needed"

 I replaced Calibri with Comic Sans MS and it works fine for my purposes.  Thanks so much to OpenOffice.org Ninja - you rock!

UPDATE - if you're sharing docs on Microsoft platforms, one of the office versions may be missing a font.  See: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/powerpoint-help/fonts-that-ship-with-different-versions-of-office-HA010282644.aspx for help from Microsoft.

Here is a recipe if you are on Ubuntu:  http://askubuntu.com/questions/34077/libreoffice-missing-certain-microsoft-fonts

Monandnock Hike

Every year, and this year also.  We did the White Cross trail for a change.  Here are two snaps on the way up, across to one of the lesser peaks, and the path forward.

efficient, but fun

Like we said, who says great mileage can't be fun?  The CR-Z looks good...

more on longevity risk

In the popular (?) press, see this article in the Boston Globe - Living to 95....

One assumes this will only get better (worse) as biology, health, and medical research leads to additional discoveries during the next years and decades. Besides putting pressure on individual financial planning, there will be complicated consequences for national policy.

For sure I imagine retirement age will be deferred, social security will start later and additional elder care programs will be necessary.

I guess the best point to make is that one expects this will generally be due to healthy life extension, which will let us earn more of our keep at ever later ages. Part time work anyone?

nature - from a recent morning walk

 

MIT report on future of transportation

with comprehensive focus on automotive technology choices.   very helpful in understanding the different characteristics of different types of engine technologies.

report here:  Fueling our Transportation Future

money quote from the summary:

"We have concluded that a 30–50% reduction in fuel consumption is feasible over the next
30 years. In the short-term, this will come as a result of improved gasoline and diesel engines
and transmissions, gasoline hybrids, and reductions in vehicle weight and drag. If these
improvements are achieved, we estimate a $1,500–$4,500 increase in vehicle costs. Over the
longer term, plug-in hybrids and later still, hydrogen fuel cells may enter the fleet in numbers
sufficient to have significant an impact on fuel use and emissions."

We can solve the climate crisis.

We can solve the climate crisis.

"The We Campaign is a project of The Alliance for Climate Protection --  a nonprofit, nonpartisan effort founded by Nobel laureate former Vice President Al Gore. Our ultimate aim is to halt global warming"

Worth checking into.  Organized citizens may be able to add a strong voice to the debate - otherwise the risk is policies will be driven by vested interests  for their benefit.

VW concept

Did I mention how cool this looks?

 

For more details, see this Autoblog entry, which mentions, by the way, the 55mpg rating.   Green and fun...

Pickens on energy independence

The Speculist embeds this video outlining T. Boone Pickens plan for US energy independence.  I'm not so sure independance is the key factor, but developing multiple scalable alternatives to oil and other caron-based energy sources is nothing but a good idea.

elite performance

 This post  (How the best of the best get better and better) from Eric Musselman's Basketball Notebook points to a HBR article about elite performance psychology.   Good food for thought and possible self-improvement.
snip:

1.  Learn to love the pressure.   "Top sports performers don’t allow themselves to be distracted by the victories or failures of others. They concentrate on what they can control and forget the rest."

2.  Set long-term goals, then outline short-term objectives and action steps.   "Much of star athletes’ ability to rebound from defeat comes from an intense focus on long-term goals and aspirations. At the same time, both sports stars and their coaches are keenly aware that the road to long-term success is paved with small achievements.  The trick here is to meticulously plan short-term goals so that performance will peak at major, rather than minor, events."

3.  Compete against the best in order to improve.  "If you hope to make it to the very top...make sure you train with the people who will push you the hardest."

4.  Seek constructive criticism, feedback, and advice.  "How do you motivate yourself to embark on another cycle of building the mental and physical endurance required to win the next time, especially now that you have become the benchmark? [Elite performers have] an insatiable appetite for feedback.  They have a particularly strong need for instant, in the moment feedback."

5.  Work hard; play hard.  "Elite performers...put almost as much effort into their celebrations as they do into their accomplishments.  Celebration is more than an emotional release. Done effectively, it involves a deep level of analysis and enhanced awareness. The very best performers do not move on before they have scrutinized and understood thoroughly the factors underpinning their success.  Dwelling on success for too long is a distraction and, worse, leads to complacency. Celebrate—but push on."

6.  An intense desire to compete.  "What drives all elite performers is a fierce desire to compete—and win. That’s what truly separates elite performers from ordinary high achievers. It takes supreme, almost unimaginable grit and courage to get back into the ring and fight to the bitter end."

 

end-snip

Here is the original Harvard Business Review article.

The 21st century is a lot of fun...

A mars sunset.

Disruptive Civil Technologies

From National Intelligence Council (NIC) this report details six technologies

"with the potential to causes a noticeable-even if temporary- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of US national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion)."

The time frame is bounded by 2025, and the six technology areas include:

1. Biogerontechnology
2. Energy Storage Materials
3. Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
4. Clean Coal Technologies
5. Service Robotics
6. The Internet of Things.

Several of these are particularly interesting, including the clumsily-named Biogerontechnology - I prefer to think of it as biotech and related technologies contributing to healthy life extension. Wired this week reports on The Fight to End Aging Gains Legitimacy, Funding if you're interested in another viewpoint.

Detailed reports in PDF format are available within the report.

"Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms"

from the Washington Post, Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms

impact snippet:

"This report addresses one of the most frequently asked questions about global warming: What will happen to weather and climate extremes?" said one of the report's two co-chairs, Thomas R. Karl, who directs of NOAA's National Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C.. He added that the report, which synthesizes the findings of more than 100 academic papers, "concludes that we are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events."

So, no surprise here I guess. Seems to me the 20th century was filled with chaos of our own making that we had the capacity to deal with. The 21st century may be filled with chaos of differing types that may be beyond our ability to deal with - with unfortunate consequences. But, I'm an optimist, relentlessly, so I assume even if some mayhem ensues, we'll come out the other side. (or maybe we're laying the groundwork for local implementation of The Great Filter.)

Here is a link to the actual report: Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

another William Gibson interview

this time on IO9 (thanks IO9)

As usual, from my perspective, Gibson always provides interesting tidbits to think about. In this interview he doesn't disappoint.

Bar Harbor / Acadia

We stayed a few days in Bar Harbor and enjoyed Acadia. Hiking, Bike Riding and generally a good time. If you're looking for a restaurant in Bar Harbor, we recommend Guinness & Porcelli's Italian Cuisine. If its not the best restaurant in Bar Harbor I'd be surprised!

Here are a few nature snaps:

Singularity going mainstream?

You know discussion about the singularity is starting to approach the mainstream when, first, IEEE Spectrum has a special report devoted to serious discussion about the concept.

And, second, Ray Kurzweil appears on CNN interviewed by Glenn Beck. Here is the transcript.

Freeman Dyson on The Question of Global Warming

Freeman Dyson discusses the subject of global warming as covered in two books in this review in The New York Review of Books.

Freeman Dyson is scary smart, clear thinking, and expresses himself logically. I find it useful to pay attention to him because he provides insight lacking in conventional opinion. I recommend reading the article.

Updates: On the political scene:

Global warming bill faces stiff GOP opposition
and,
NASA watchdog says press office distorted climate studies

On this last point - seems to me you can do the science and then have a healthy political and/or policy debate regarding what to do about the scientific results. If the scientific results are in error or have bias, other scientists will delight in exposing the problem. Something about scientific method and inquiry and all that. If you allow politicians to determine scientific results; well, then you have Lysenkoism.

"Civilization's last chance"

From Bill McKibben in the LA Times: Civilization's last chance

Here is the money snippet:

There's a number -- a new number -- that makes this point most powerfully. It may now be the most important number on Earth: 350. As in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

A few weeks ago, NASA's chief climatologist, James Hansen, submitted a paper to Science magazine with several coauthors. The abstract attached to it argued -- and I have never read stronger language in a scientific paper -- that "if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm."

Also, here is McKibben's 350.org

Great Meadow Wildlife

Snapped earlier this morning:

Wachusett last weekend

Brief hike. We'll add Wachusett Mountain State Reservation to the rotation.

The top:



Boston, in the distance, if you can see it:



Monandnock, in the distance, if you can see it:

ethanol

Is ethanol the answer? I think not, and not just because of the food vs fuel dynamic, as described here in the Washington Post: Siphoning Off Corn to Fuel Our Cars.

This column in the New York Sun by Harold Furchtgott-Roth offers useful links explaining why ethanol is not the answer.

So, probably corn-based ethanol is not the direction we should be taking for fuel diversity and supply.

We can talk about corn monoculture in another post...

from RWW: 15 of the Best Green Search Engines

The ever interesting ReadWriteWeb lists 15 Green Search engines.

There are a lot of ways one could imagine a green search engine would function, or add value, and many of them are represented here.

two years

Started this blog two years ago, plus a couple of weeks. Its been fun to experiment with different topics, and to record some local and family stuff. I plan to continue...

energy not growing on trees

A good perspective from a scientist on the biofuels conundrum.

Seems to me the biofuel debate will get muddied by the political issues associated with agribusiness.

I do enjoy Cosmic Variance, albeit as a layman.

interloper

This caused quite a stir among the feline inhabitants of the house - a territorial incursion by an interloper.

No Sun link to climate change

This BBC News post refers to scientific research that indicates global warming is not solely a result of changes in the the amount of radiation from the sun. See: 'No Sun link' to climate change

Lede:

Scientists have produced further compelling evidence showing that modern-day climate change is not caused by changes in the Sun's activity.

Climate change debunkers will start to try to debunk this research as well, I suppose. Sigh.

stunned

This hawk (Ruffed Grouse?) flew into our deck window. I hope he'll be ok.



UPDATE: He didn't make it. Very sad.

UPDATE 2: He was given a proper and respectful burial.

UPDATE 3: There is a suspicion he killed himself by diving into the window in a misguided attack on one of our cats.

UPDATE 4: Now there is a claim he may actually have been a Ruffed Grouse. The plot thickens...

neighbors

Ed Boyden: How to Think

In his Technology Review blog, Ed discusses a few thinking tips in his post subtitled: Managing brain resources in an age of complexity.

In summary:

1. Synthesize new ideas constantly.
2. Learn how to learn (rapidly).
3. Work backward from your goal.
4. Always have a long-term plan.
5. Make contingency maps.
6. Collaborate.
7. Make your mistakes quickly.
8. Write up best-practices protocols.
9. Document everything obsessively.
10. Keep it simple.

See Ed's post for details and other suggestions.

glaciers continue to retreat

See this post on CNN.com. Bottom line -

Haeberli said glaciers lost an average of about a foot of ice a year between 1980 and 1999. But since the turn of the millennium the average loss has increased to about 20 inches.

Glacial melting seems like a good example of possible climate change. Its probably useful to remember the distinction between climate and weather, and this NASA article is a good place to start: What's the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

UPDATE: more context from Universe Today on arctic ice.

inflammation

I've heard more than once that inflammation has a significant impact as we age. This article explains more. I'm a daily ibuprofen or aspirin guy myself.

sxsw 2008

Well, still didn't get to SXSW this year. Sigh. Maybe next year.

But they've made a bunch of the music available for download as individual MP3s, or via bittorrent, for example, here.

DownThemAll!

I've started using DownThemAll! to download (legally!) MP3s. I use it within Firefox and can recommend it highly. I even like the little notification chime that sounds when downloads complete.

Rep. Markey's net neutrality legislation

A post from Google Public Policy discusses new legislation from Markey on net neutrality.

Here is the money quote, as far as I'm concerned:

"Net neutrality is too often painted as just about particular companies' competing interests, but that's missing the point. Rather, net neutrality and broadband policy are -- and should be -- about what's ultimately best for people, in terms of economic growth as well as the social benefit of empowering individuals to speak, create, and engage one another online using the wide panoply of innovations available to them. In other words, broadband policy should come from the bottom up."

To my eye - the legislation sets a good course. It could be stronger with respect to ensuring the providers don't clip the Internet's wings while its still developing. For me, the fear is crystallizing the Internet/Web too soon - solidifying the existing framework so that the ISPs can introduce bottlenecks they can monetize. ISPs can exploit the conflict of interest they enjoy when they provide both content and access. My perhaps impractical ideal is to fully separate provision of broadband connectivity from provision of content.

more winter photos

winter storm photo

Grand Challenges for Engineering

see: Introduction to the Grand Challenges for Engineering, on the National Academy of Engineering's site. Fourteen challenges were selected.

Picking a big problems to address is a great way to focus research. There are several worthy big problems here. In my personal opinion, a few are too focused on contemporary hot buttons, and are more tactical than strategic. It'll be interesting to watch which of these challenges inspire enough contribution to make significant progress.

$20T climate change cost?

See UN: climate change may cost $20 trillion from Yahoo News.

Relevant snippet:

UNITED NATIONS - Global warming could cost the world up to $20 trillion over two decades for cleaner energy sources and do the most harm to people who can least afford to adapt, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warns in a new report.

Still seems to me this is an opportunity for economic, scientific, and commercial innovation.

you don't see this very often!

From NASA, one of the published photos from the Messenger Mission to Mercury: A Closer Look at the Previously Unseen Side

the next big thing?

could be: Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius ?

airport hotel boston

So I'm remiss in uploading some recent photos, trying to make up.

pigs

snow

Lowell in winter

Jack Kerouac park



bridge