"More Evidence We've Entered the End of Oil"

More Evidence We've Entered the End of Oil is a posting in WIRED's blog network that discusses the end of oil meme in the context of an article in the Wall Street Journal.

Seems to me in addition to the geo-data about quantities of recoverable oil, there is also the psycho-data that indicates human institutions are starting to formulate what a post-oil world might look like. This is a significant step, in my opinion, in bringing about change. I assume the rate of chance will be non-linear, and that over time, perhaps less time than we imagine, the momentum of non-oil energy sources in the market will increase significantly.

more on VCs tackle green

from CNN Money, an article focused on Al Gore getting hands-on with the VC community in their efforts to marshal entrepreneurial efforts to turn energy problems into energy opportunities. In my opinion, this is worth reading - as I've noted before, unleashing our economic system can address environmental problems and create wealth.

see: Al Gore's next act: Planet-saving VC

relevant snippet:

According to Doerr, by 2009 more than a third of Kleiner's latest fund, which was raised in 2006 and totals $600 million, will be invested in technologies that aim to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. Already Kleiner has invested more than $270 million from various funds in 26 companies that make everything from microbes that scrub old oil wells to electric cars to noncorn ethanol. Twelve of Kleiner's 22 partners now spend some or all of their time on green investments.

however, the catch:

There is, however, one thing standing in their way. Five years after Kleiner Perkins made its first green investment, the firm hasn't had one "exit" -- VC-speak for an IPO or a sale of a company that validates the investment thesis. Doerr equates this moment to Internet investing (which he famously called "the greatest legal creation of wealth in the history of the planet") before Kleiner took a certain search engine public in 1995. Now, he wonders, "what's the company that will lead the boom? What's the Netscape of green innovation?"

Read the article!

experimenting with "macro"

lemon:

more fall

Open Congress

Enabling democracy: to the extent that the services like this are available on the Internet, and improved over time, we will all benefit.

See OpenCongress.org

Global Environmental Outlook

The UN released the 4th Global Environmental Outlook, GEO-4.

Climate change, and related changes put humanity at risk. In my opinion, serious changes will be needed to sustain human growth and development while caring for the environment. We need to treat the natural environment as an investment and not as a wasting resource to be exploited.

Snippet:

• decline of fish stocks;
• loss of fertile land through degradation;
• unsustainable pressure on resources;
• dwindling amount of fresh water available for humans and other creatures to share; and
• risk that environmental damage could pass unknown points of no return

Its the last that particularly concerns me. What tipping point we will we reach unexpectedly?

fall

A recent photo nearby:

deer

recent local nature photos

These photos were snapped nearby over the course of the last week or two. There would also have been a picture of a rabbit who had started living under our deck, but his own carelessness was taken advantage of by a local hawk. Yum.

The Climate Change Peril That Insurers See

From WashPo: The Climate Change Peril That Insurers See

While I think action is required at the national government and international level as well regarding climate change, I wouldn't underestimate the rationality and power of the insurance industry.
Snippet:

Lloyd's has warned: "The insurance industry must start actively adjusting in response to greenhouse gas trends if it is to survive." The Association of British Insurers has called on governments to "stem ominous weather related trends" by cutting carbon emissions. U.S.-based companies AIG and Marsh -- respectively, the largest insurer and broker -- have joined with other corporate leaders to urge Congress to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 60 to 80 percent by mid-century. AIG's policy statement on climate change "recognizes the scientific consensus that climate change is a reality and is likely in large part the result of human activities that have led to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere."

Update: About governmental action being that the government needs to take it.... From WaPo: Bush's EPA Is Pursuing Fewer Polluters. Snippet:

"The Environmental Protection Agency's pursuit of criminal cases against polluters has dropped off sharply during the Bush administration, with the number of prosecutions, new investigations and total convictions all down by more than a third, according to Justice Department and EPA data."
...
"The number of civil lawsuits filed against defendants who refuse to settle environmental cases was down nearly 70 percent between fiscal years 2002 and 2006, compared with a four-year period in the late 1990s, according to those same statistics. "

music podcasts

Here are a few podcasts and related sites I enjoy and can recommend:

Dub Session, with podcast URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/Dub_Session

Radio Three Sixty, with podcast URL: itpc://www.threesixtyrecords.net/podcasts/radiothreesixtymp3.xml

blogariddms, via weareie, with podcast URL: http://www.weareie.com/audio/blogariddims/Blogariddims.xml

can't forget Duke Listens!, Idolator, Pitchfork, and Fluxblog. All link to downloads from time to time; the Idolator podcast seems spotty (or it has moved.)

I subscribe to the podcasts via iTunes, and either burn them to CD to listen in the car, or download them to my shuffle.

William Gibson on fora.tv

Thanks to fora.tv, here is video of William Gibson reading an excerpt from Spook Country and handling questions during his book tour (at Codys).



A question about the influence of Joseph Cornell led me to find this WebMuseum site.

Gibson, a big favorite of mine for his cultural insights as well as his fiction, has been blogging his trip.

UPDATE: While we are on the topic of Gibson, here is a transcript of an interview with him in The Guardian, titled "Space to Think".

Francis Fukuyama - The End Of History Revisited

I've been reading this book (End of History and the Last Man), finally, and now found this lecture by Francis Fukuyama, captured on video via FORA.tv.

My opinion is this is excellent thinking, but misses insights on the psychological basis of cultural context and the pace of change. But thinking about things at this scale helps set the stage for understanding where we are and where we might go next. Fukuyama also has cogent insight on the singularity, a topic I enjoy thinking about. Probably inaccurately paraphrasing - he suggests that human societal and cultural behaviors will mitigate extraordinary rates of change.

london 2007

TUN3R.com

So, TUN3R is very cool if you're interested in finding music/internet radio stream online. I like it...

walk in Arlington

which I frequently do....

google views network neutrality

The new Google Public Policy blog posts their view of network neutrality. For me, the main points of whatever network neutrality may mean should include: that the Internet remain open to innovation, that the end-to-end principle should remain a key foundation, and that access to the Internet is fairly available to all.

nature.com climate resource page

nature.com has a resource page for climate change.

I'll add this to my list of resources on climate change that may not be overly contaminated by political fud from either end of the political spectrum.

now taking Smart reservations!

"Coming to the USA in 2008"

Not so sure its just right for where we live, but I'm keeping my eye on the Smart fourtwo.

Climate Savers Computing Initiative

So this is a good idea, and overdue. The fruits of green computing could be considerable, not to mention lowering my utility bill.

longevity risk

So, I was thinking about retirement savings today. An article in the NY Times talked about the (horrifyingly low) median amount of retirement saving the average boomer has socked away.

Found a couple of relevant articles:

1) from FDIC: Outlook Spring 2006

There are many risks to retirement saving, for example, inflation. Another one I found particularly interesting was the concept of "longevity risk". Yep, with increased and increasing progress in health care and health science, our savings are subject to, I guess, bring outlived.

2) From July of 2006, an article from Marketwatch: America's savings hoax exposed

The point of this article seems to be that many of us are willfully blind about our savings posture, and important factors in society encourage us in this blindness, as, from the subtitle:

"Politicians, bankers and CEOs all want you to spend, not save."

What follows are a number of scary quotes and observations about our savings. And the theory that only a catastrophe could bring us to our senses.

Ironically, some of the scientific research I've been following recently demonstrates optimism about the possibility of healthy life extension. I guess we better adjust our financial models and savings plans as well. Or, what the heck, go with the 50" plasma high-def.

xkcd

...Well, blogs I frequent reference something funny in xkcd, more than you might expect. So I should probably track it..

Prospects for extending healthy life

Aubrey de Grey's talk recorded via Google video.

Not sure I can really accept all the arguments, but this is a provocative talk, and worth the hour or so to watch if you have an interest in research about aging.

John Doerr: Seeking salvation and profit in greentech

Great talk (18 minute video) by John Doerr at TED regarding greentech; no doubt this is heartfelt and compelling. From the TED site:

"I don't think we're going to make it," John Doerr proclaims, in an emotional talk about climate change and investment. Spurred on by his daughter, who demanded he fix the mess the world is heading for, he and his partners at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers embarked on a greentech world tour -- surveying the state of the art, from the ethanol revolution in Brazil to Wal-mart's (!) eco-concept store in Bentonville, Arkansas. KPCB is investing $200 million in green technologies to save the planet and make a profit to boot. But, Doerr fears, it may not be enough.

network neutrality

From isen.blog, one of the more articulate posts on network neutrality that I've read, Making Network Neutrality Sustainable: SMART Letter #100.

How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic

Thanks to Grist, here is a collection of information which can be used to refute refuters.

I know there is a strong emphasis on the right-hand side of the political spectrum to debunk global warming, apparently because they see it as a liberal or big government attack on free markets and capitalism. It seems to me that global warming, while threatening, is also a fantastic opportunity for entrepreneurs and our free market economy to address the problem in ways that help grow the economy. And it seems to me that many small and large players in the market are taking this view, as previously blogged. Hmmm...

songbird

Well, Songbird looks pretty interesting, and perhaps a candidate to add to my collection of useful open source apps.

google green

Coding Horror has this article:

When Hardware is Free, Power is Expensive

about Google's focus on efficient power supplies. It includes a link to a Google whitepaper on the subject.

Google's efforts at scaling identify the issues, like power, that occur in internet-scale infrastructures. The great benefit is that theses technologies will trickle down to PCs we ordinary humans will purchase.

Pioneer Plasma Display

Well, this Pioneer 50" 1080p Plasma Display seems pretty cool!

latest Kurzweil video

Ray Kurzweil presented this session at the recent Killer App expo. It is well-recorded, including the audio, and Ray didn't rush through. Some of his more technical slides didn't seem to make it here. There is a 25minute or so Q&A period at the end.

sauna

oh boy!



care should be taken...

yahoo! green

bandwagon alert?

Seriously, Yahoo! Green looks like a good try at a portal for information and activity related to green endeavors. Its going to be interesting to see if this effort by Yahoo! gains momentum.

carp

Visited Great Meadow again yesterday; noticed some very busy fish - Carp. Buried in this article "Management at the Concord Impoundments,2000-2007" is a discussion of the carp issue.

the smiths

There are some people who know me well who are tired of hearing me explain my feelings about The Smiths - and my insistence that they were not only the best band of the 80s, but probably of any other decade as well.

Here is a cultural reference from 3Quarks Daily, which also includes a link to this fascinating site.

while we're at it: Shift Happens

via Speculist, Shift Happens

Thomas Barnett speaks

Speaking of videos and the future, Thomas Barnett speaks at Pop!Tech, and his speech is available on the web here.

In my opinion, this is worth viewing if you want a useful interpretation and analysis of what the next century might look like from a political/military viewpoint. And Thomas is an engaging speaker.

Ray Kurzweil speaks

I had occasion recently to see Ray Kurzweil speak, at RSA2007. I was impressed by his analysis and excited by many of his predictions. Now, the TED conference is putting videos online, and one is of Mr. Kurzweil.

You can see the video here. This is a variant of the speech I originally saw. I think Mr. Kurzweil has a very large slide deck, and probably doesn't use all of his material in any one speech.

One may or may not agree with all of Ray's predictions, but I think a key point is that not only is technological change continuing, its pace is increasing. And the ramifications for societal and cultural change will only become more pervasive. It seems to me that if it is true that the pace of change is increasing, and societal and cultural changes will continue to manifest, then we are in for an interesting and challenging next 20-30 years.

One extremely simple example. I can now watch Ray's video anytime I want, and link to it with this blog, and watch other similar videos quite easily. Just sitting here at my dining room table, using broadband cable and a decent recent vintage notebook PC, I have the opportunity to learn so much from so many.

Here is www.kurzweilai.net where more information is available, and it has an RSS feed.

remiss, climate, oil

I have been remiss in blogging. Getting back in the saddle again with a few climate related stories.

In particular:

UN security council holds climate debate.

Pentagon study says oil reliance strains military.

I think a significant point to keep in mind that climate change and oil consumption, which go hand in hand to some extent, can have important global and national security ramifications.

Stricter emission limits get a boost.

To a large extent, some political actors seem to see the entire topic of environmentalism, whether it means addressing climate change, or even using compact fluorescent light bulbs (read further!), as some hare-brained socialist scheme to take down capitalism, the free market, and probably motherhood and apple pie. My opinion is that tackling environmental issues head-on with attention to both science and economics will protect capitalism, free markets, motherhood, and apple pie. In fact, our market-based economy is best suited to address not just the problems resulting from environmental issues, but also their root causes. And, in many cases, this can be done by providing consumers with information they can use to make informed choices.

And our market-based economy is sensing the opportunity in alternative fuels, per this report.

Arctic melt-off: ahead of schedule.

This last points out that recent research findings continue to support the thesis that the IPCC report was too conservative in terms of reflecting the impact of melting ice at the poles.

On the other hand, I've heard of a backlash against compact fluorescent light bulbs, due to the issues with cleaning up and disposing of the mercury that would spill in case a bulb breaks. Energy Star has this to say about CFLBs and their disposal. I know our transfer station offers fluorescent bulb recycling and safe disposal.

one year

I started this blog in April 2006, so this is the one year anniversary of this blog.

Blogging is interesting in a few ways. When I started this blog, I envisioned it as a place to try my hand at blogging, to learn what it is like, and to offer a portal into some of my interests for friends and family. I have fallen into several common blogging traps, including in no small measure the "cat blog" trap.

Blogging is a useful practice for gathering thoughts on a subject, and finding a way to articulate those thoughts in a personal voice. One blogging trap I try to avoid is to become an "echo chamber".

In this next year, I plan to continue to this blog, and will probably continue to emphasize some photo blogging from my personal life coupled with other observations into areas that interest me as an amateur.

latest IPCC update

So the IPCC issued its latest report (PDF) on climate change impacts, adaption, and vulnerability - summary for policymakers.

I believe the overall work of the IPCC has contributed to a better global understanding of the reality of climate change, and of the need to address it. Even last fall, the Christian Science Monitor published an article "New combatant against global warming: insurance industry" that showed insurance giants giving due consideration to the risks of climate change.

Additionally, in a split decision this week, the Supreme Court of the United States determined that the Environmental Protection Agency can regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as described in this article in USA Today.

It seems to me that the challenge of climate change and global warming is a fantastic opportunity for industry, here in the states and elsewhere, to develop significant new revenue streams and profit centers in all sorts of markets, including greener power generation, more efficient vehicles, smart houses, and so on.

Even top-tier VCs are beginning to look in this direction.

"Past, Present and Future of Food" - John Mackey

Recently I discovered a blog post and slide show (PDF) by John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods, on the "Past, Present and Future of Food". His presentation discusses food production from a variety of viewpoints, including sustainability and ethics. I found it energizing to read because it reflects a positive, achievable vision of the future. While I sometimes blog about climate issues that face our culture, and leaders that may fail to embrace the challenges, thoughtful leaders like John articulate important aspects of the path forward.

peak oil, from How to Save the World

I've started to follow Dave Pollard's blog "How to Save the World", and recently read his posting on peak oil.

I see in Dave's post another voice making the point that our political will, or at least the will of the conventionally thinking political leadership, is lacking on the topic of our energy future.

Having said that, recently I've seen more posts and articles suggesting that leaders in business and venture capital are giving more weight to green approaches in their decision making. And consumer products are also at least providing more green material in their marketing. Perhaps the political "leadership" will have to catch up one of these days...

For example, Ethan Zuckerman reports from the TED conference that John Doerr is very focused on climate change.

Bill McKibben on the IPCC report in NYRB

Warning on Warming, by Bill, offers a summary that puts this IPCC report in context of previous work, and again points out that it probably understates the issues for a variety of reasons.

Also, Bill introduces Step It Up 2007, which is coordinating April 14th as a National Day of Climate Action. Good tagline too: "Step it up Congress! Cut carbon 80% by 2050."

And while we are on IPCC again, here is IPCCfacts.org where more information on the IPCC report is available.

more comments on the IPCC report

Surfing the zeitgeist, I found another two comments on the IPCC report I blogged about before.

Talking Points Memo emphasizes the missing analysis in the report that could result in yet worse outcomes.

GrrlScientist makes the same point.

So, good news is that there is reputable drumbeat moving the discussion from denial to
some level of realism. But its also clear there is still a requirement that this topic be taken much more seriously.

Afternoon naps may boost heart health

Now this is good news. Thanks to NewScientist.com for bringing this to my attention. I plan to get underway with this as soon as possible!

IPCC report - summary for policy makers

While we seem to be on the subject of climate lately, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a summary for policy makers of the 2007 report, SPM2feb07.pdf. There seems to be a consistent drumbeat suggesting that this report is toned-down a bit, and probably understates some of the issues. If so, it still offers a wake-up call from a reputable body of scientists. Its another piece of evidence that should cause us to take the subject of climate change seriously.

she, who must be obeyed....

more on climate change

The Union of Concerned Scientists has a global warming FAQ. This is a good resource where one can learn more about the science of global warming and the impact of the human economic system on climate change.

I believe that the impact of climate change, and whatever remediation activities that we might undertake, will be a major factor in defining the landscape of the 21st century. Learning as much as we can about this topic will help us make informed decisions about policy options in the future.

one cubic mile

IEEE Spectrum has a fascinating but sobering analysis of energy use and alternatives. Roughly, the world currently uses about one cubic mile of oil per year. As an additional ironic note, I'm typing this at exactly the same time the local company is delivering oil to this house, as we ran out last night unexpectedly.

climate change

Several events and related articles in the press recently provide further insight into global climate change and how we learn about it and think about it.

Cathy Young in the Boston Globe offers this article on bringing common sense into the political debate.

NASA Watch provides a collection of articles about funding risks for Earth Observation Satellites in this post: Earth Observation Satellite Cuts Examined.

And the New York Times has a great piece on The Warming of Greenland - uncovering a new island.

It seems to me that Cathy is right - we need common sense, and we need that common sense informed by as much relevant scientific data as possible. Seems like this is the worst possible time to take the risk of having less data provided by earth-observing satellites.

i want one!

iPhone