Wide Ruin

celebrity

2012-01-16T12:49:00.001-05:00

recently found via the web, a line of poetry that applies so frequently and poignantly, from Emily Dickinson:

Celebrity is the chastisement of merit and the punishment of talent.

recently, Joshua Tree National Park

2012-01-09T15:02:00.002-05:00

"when money equals speech, elections become auctions"

2011-11-01T16:17:00.003-04:00

"when money equals speech, elections become auctions" - From: http://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/11/01/bought-justice/

Most succinct way to describe the problem, that I've found anyway.

Snippet:

Consider the key case cited by most experts in West Virginia showing the cost of judicial corruption. Rowland notes:
The CEO of A.T. Massey Coal Co. spent $3 million to elect lawyer Brent Benjamin to the state Supreme Court, while Massey Coal was appealing a $50 million jury award against it. Even after repeated requests from the petitioners, Justice Benjamin refused to recuse himself, instead casting the deciding vote to overturn the $50 million judgment.

new friends

2011-11-01T07:55:00.003-04:00

another Gibson interview

2011-09-01T17:24:00.000-04:00

from Boing Boing, here: http://boingboing.net/2011/09/01/william-gibson-interview-boing-boing-exclusive.html

Lots of interesting stuff as usual, including: What things are keeping your interest lately?

"The sheer surreality of the Republican presidential primary, Libya, Iain Sinclair's monolithic ongoing anti-Olympics project (Hackney, That Rose Red Empire and now Ghost Milk), the "gray man" concept in personal security, the culture of personal aerial drones, parts of the United States as newly undeveloped sub-nations and the foreign outsourcing thereof... "

(wow - two posts today!)

what we should know about time (and aging)

2011-09-01T15:04:00.000-04:00

From Cosmic Variance: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/09/01/ten-things-everyone-should-know-about-time/

In particular, this one:

9. Aging can be reversed. We all grow old, part of the general trend toward growing disorder. But it’s only the universe as a whole that must increase in entropy, not every individual piece of it. (Otherwise it would be impossible to build a refrigerator.) Reversing the arrow of time for living organisms is a technological challenge, not a physical impossibility. And we’re making progress on a few fronts: stem cells, yeast, and even (with caveats) mice and human muscle tissue. As one biologist told me: “You and I won’t live forever. But as for our grandkids, I’m not placing any bets.”

Kurzweil has been singing this song for a while, and it makes sense. When extreme healthy-life extension becomes possible, how society responds and adapts to the possibility will be fascinating. How'd you like to see the same set of supreme court justices for 200 years? ;-)

feynman: cargo cult science

2011-08-28T11:40:00.000-04:00

For the permanent record: http://neurotheory.columbia.edu/~ken/cargo_cult.html

in particular:

I would like to add something that's not essential to the science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the layman when you're talking as a scientist. I am not trying to tell you what to do about cheating on your wife, or fooling your girlfriend, or something like that, when you're not trying to be a scientist, but just trying to be an ordinary human being. We'll leave those problems up to you and your rabbi. I'm talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you're maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.

NASA, the space program, and the Shuttle

2011-07-26T14:27:00.002-04:00

So, the shuttle has made its last flight, and last landing. Many lament its end, and worry about the future of human space flight. Not me, I think a door has closed, but many will open. In particular, a plethora of space-focused companies are pursuing technologies that may open space for all of us faster than NASA could have. Here's to them!

Here is a good place to follow many of the new efforts: http://www.newspacejournal.com/

solar energy technology and Moore's Law

2011-04-20T08:49:00.001-04:00

I've been trying to understand theoretical maximums, etc.. for solar energy. This article by Ramez Naam in O'Reilly Radar captures a lot of what I am in interested in learning.

See: http://radar.oreilly.com/2011/04/solar-power-moores-law.html Apparently this article was originally in Scientific American.

Valuable snippet:

The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. Seven hundred watts of power, on average, reaches Earth's surface. Summed across the half of the Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89 petawatts of power. By comparison, all of human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one six-thousandth as much. In 14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a day.

I'd like to understand more about the impact of latitude and weather on the theoretical maximum in any particular location. Latitude changes mean changes in angle of sunlight, affecting energy density I suppose. Also, average cloud cover in a particular location obviously makes a big difference.

Anyone really good with maps mashups? Given a Google map of a particular location, calculate and display theoretical max energy from sunlight. Maybe, given appropriate weather table data this would be an application for Fusion Tables. Any takers? Or perhaps someone has already done this. If only I had any free time at all....

2011 gardening tips

2011-02-13T17:46:00.002-05:00

Well, I'll use this post to collect tips and suggestions for our 2011 gardening.

First, from the Concord Magazine Blog: 11 Tips for Selecting Seeds to Grow in the Concord Area (Part 1 Open Pollinated Seeds, Variety, New England Sourcing, Expand Harvest, and other good suggestions.

Updated: Here is Part 2: http://www.concordma.com/blog/2011/02/11-tips-for-selecting-seeds-to-grow-in-the-concord-area-part-2.html

Also, this year hopefully I'll remember to get some straw for the garden paths to keep down the weeds. Like here: http://homesteadrevival.blogspot.com/2010/02/preparing-garden-path.html I love this photo and would like to do something similar.

Waltham to put on a Steampunk event in May

2011-02-13T13:09:00.000-05:00

Wow, this will be cool.

See: http://internationalsteampunkcity.com/

And, where I originally found it on BoingBoing: http://www.boingboing.net/2011/02/13/waltham-mass-becomes.html

Scheduled for May 6th - 8th, it comes just before/as I leave for Google IO. But, I'll try to drive down for the 6th anyway. By coincidence, just after we get back from NYC.

another Mars photo - 'hills-of-endeavour"

2011-02-06T09:47:00.000-05:00

thanks to http://roadtoendeavour.wordpress.com/ more great Mars photos

the “The Road To Endeavour”, a blog dedicated to following the Mars Exploration Rover ‘Opportunity’ as she heads south from Victoria Crater to the much larger, much more epic crater, ‘Endeavour’!

blog post here: http://roadtoendeavour.wordpress.com/2011/01/23/the-hills-are-calling/

Liking this panorama:

It still is so awe-inspiring to be able to see and post "local" photos taken from the Martian surface. Gotta love the 21st century.

new toy from Google - Julia Map

2011-02-05T16:28:00.000-05:00

see: http://juliamap.googlelabs.com/

snowpocalypse

2011-02-02T09:19:00.001-05:00

Our fenced garden is almost entirely under snow. Today happens to be the second day of storms, one each day. January apparently 3rd snowiest January ever, and 6th snowiest month ever. Sigh.

Thats the garden down there - see the top of the fence?

winter storm photo

2011-02-01T17:47:00.000-05:00

I'm getting pretty tired of all the snow this winter. And now look:

current storm

sunset on mars

2011-01-15T07:39:00.000-05:00

An old-ish photo (2005) but I recently discovered it. I really like it and its now my desktop wallpaper. Boggles my mind to see the kind of photos that NASA is returning from various spots in the Solar System. In this case, thanks to the rover Spirit...

mars sunset

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_347.html

more on climate change denial

2011-01-10T16:23:00.003-05:00

Haven't written too much lately on climate change, but I do like to post links to reasoned analysis especially where it applies to debunking debunkers.

A good example is an article at realclimate.org entitled: "Forbes’ rich list of nonsense" - talking about a recent article in Forbes. Here is the article on realclimate.org - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/01/forbes-rich-list-of-nonsense/.

Thanks to boingboing for publicizing it: http://www.boingboing.net/2011/01/10/climatologists-pick.html

And from World Resources, an evocative photo:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/26107309@N05/3525028997/

warm-starting 2011

2011-01-02T08:49:00.001-05:00

So, a little walk in Arlington, yesterday, on the bike path. What a day.

Bike Path

Spy Pond

"sequence the charismatic megafauna"

2010-12-07T14:21:00.000-05:00

William Andregg interviewed by Sander Olson. Read the whole interview at Next Big Future:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/12/interview-of-gene-sequencing-expert.html

One of the best, most succinct descriptions of whats in store as we utilize gene sequencing for research (that I've found.). Money quote:

"The grand design is to read, write, program DNA. The better and faster and cheaper you do that, the sooner we’ll hack biology and be free from disease. Billions of individual human genomes, and billions of genomes of domesticated animals, is only the beginning. The amount of genomic information on this planet that might help us hack biology is orders of magnitude vaster than that. You have quadrillions of unique genomes in your body, counting the metagenome of all your individual genomically different cells and the metagenome of all the stuff living in and on you. Someone will probably want to sequence every tree in a forest, or every leaf on a tree, or every bacterium in a speck of seawater. Someone will definitely sequence every ear of corn in a cornfield. We’ll probably sequence all the charismatic megafauna we can find on the planet, and all the trillions of less glamorous animals as well. But even that is only the beginning. People will do forward genetics studies where they sequence trillions of individual cells or model organisms. And there may be just as much or more sequencing of artificial genomes or genetic constructs in the course of solving synthetic biology- the writing and programming part of the grand design. Tangentially, synthetic biology might be the least insanely difficult way to robust nanotechnology, making anything you want from spoons to space elevators, just like your cells build things with atomic precision all the time, using a billion year old programming language that we aim to completely understand. And so sequencing might turn out to be upstream of a lot more than merely freeing humanity from all disease."

Extremely exciting.

Thanks to Next Big Future and TechCrunch TV.

William Gibson "takes to Twitter like a duck to water"

2010-12-06T16:00:00.003-05:00

You’ve taken to Twitter (GreatDismal).
I have indeed. I’ve taken to Twitter like a duck to water. Its simplicity allows the user to customize the experience with relatively little input from the Twitter entity itself. I hope they keep it simple. It works because it’s simple. I was never interested in Facebook or MySpace because the environment seemed too top-down mediated. They feel like malls to me. But Twitter actually feels like the street. You can bump into anybody on Twitter.

see: http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2010/09/vulture_transcript_william_gib.html

thanks to nymag.com

secret spaceplane X-37B

2010-12-03T17:22:00.000-05:00

well, just how secret can it be?

via: http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/photos-x-37b-robot-space-plane-landing-101203.html

America in decline?

2010-11-08T12:37:00.002-05:00

From time to time in conversation with friends, and even in this blog, I lament about the condition of the United Stares. I have used the unwieldly phrase "banana-republification", as well as other terms.

James Fallows pointed to an article in der Spiegel which advances several themes about how we got in the condition we're in. Its interesting to see our quandary from the point of view of others. Maybe there is a little schadenfreude, but its gentle enough not to distract.

Anyway, if you've got a few minutes, take a look at: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,726447-6,00.html

recently, in San Francisco (or nearby)

2010-11-07T11:26:00.000-05:00

Who knew it was fleet week? I was invariably too slow to photograph Blue Angels.

Apollo!

USS Makin Island


Muir Woods deer

in line during William Gibson book tour

2010-11-07T11:20:00.000-05:00

belated post:

2nd half of line in Brookline

that HTC EVO I got at Google IO?

2010-09-27T11:13:00.000-04:00

oops! Gave it to my lovely wife and.....

Shattered!

Concord River

2010-09-22T10:20:00.000-04:00

recent experiences captured for posterity

2010-09-02T17:57:00.001-04:00

Our Friendly Pasta guy

From a Recent Hike


More From a Recent Hike in the White Mtns

Cats Monitoring the Garden

woodpile - firewood delivered today

2010-09-02T17:47:00.000-04:00

We like the woodstove and the heat it generates, and the cats really like it, especially on those otherwise cold days. Delivered today...

collapse

2010-08-09T13:58:00.000-04:00

I frequently think about what I refer to as the banana-republification of the United States. Just watching, it seems hard to understand what a country of our wealth, innovative spirit, and successful history can no longer afford, or perhaps - chooses to no longer to afford.

Here is an article on that theme by Glenn Greenwald in Salon, "What Collapsing Empire Looks Like":
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/08/06/collapse

I think we've increasingly moved to a winner-takes-all style of economy, and in so doing we've managed to also develop a winner-breaks-it style of economy that is anything but resilient. Perhaps these winner-takes-all policies are really golden-goose-killing policies.

I think of the lottery winners who squander their winnings and wake up one day to realize they've lost it all and and only in that moment of realization recognize what they now wish they had done differently. Or athletes that sign a big contract only to see themselves in bankruptcy court because they failed to treat their good fortune wisely. I have optimistic friends who see emerging innovative ways-of-living and economic models of activity that may result in more success again for our country in the future; they turn away from the dystopian view I might see in Glenn's article. I hope they are right.

Boston Globe on Fisher Cats

2010-08-04T09:23:00.002-04:00

The Boston Globe has an article today about Fisher Cats locally. We've seen a Fisher around our house for at least three years now. A beautiful creature (similar to the one to the left) he's graceful and dangerous-looking.

http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2010/08/04/house_cats_be_warned_fishers_are_back_on_prowl/

"strike at the root"

2010-07-30T15:32:00.003-04:00

Excellent 18min video from TedXBoston, - Lessig's plea to "strike at the root" of the problem facing us today. He makes a strong case that our Republic stands in the balance, and the root of the problem is the effect of corporate funding of Congressional campaigns.

No one has said it better, in my opinion. Its worth the 18mins, check it out here: Of/By/4

http://lessig.blip.tv/file/3945764/

Andy Grove on job creation

2010-07-03T16:18:00.000-04:00

Best, most succinct article on basic problems in America's ability to create jobs. For a while I've been telling people that American companies have been creating millions of jobs in the last decade or two. Just not here. Grove puts seasoned analysis behind my sloganeering.

Read it here, thanks to Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/how-to-make-an-american-job-before-it-s-too-late-andy-grove.html

a quick snap from the garden

2010-06-23T14:26:00.000-04:00

it is prolific this year. more to come.

(note, still learning to take photos with camera on Droid. not too good at focus yet.)

Recently, in Bermuda:

2010-04-02T14:20:00.001-04:00

We traveled around the island of Bermuda for a few days recently. Here are a few non-consequential snaps.

sheep on the fort

from Fort George


flying

So, if you live around here...

2010-03-21T20:33:00.001-04:00

...and are interested in local history, you might be interested in this book. I found a link to it recently, thanks to Google: http://books.google.com/books?id=QGolOAyd9RMC

Its a history of Middlesex County, written in 1879, by Samuel Adams Drake. Its a lot of fun to dig into.

I thought I'd put this here for the permanent record.

recent flooding

2010-03-19T15:19:00.000-04:00

Some recent flooding scenes in Concord.

Can I make it?

When Calves Have Gills

Fording Lowell Road

Thats Too Bad!

local flooding

2010-03-15T13:40:00.000-04:00

So, three days of very hard rain have led to a fair amount of flooding in our local towns. Here is the road we take to leave our little cul-de-sac. Daunting, but navigable so far.

road flooded

Walden Pond and Climate Change

2010-02-27T09:19:00.002-05:00

Harvard researchers have published a paper on the effect of climate change on the Walden Pond area. Important to understand is how climate change can enable and strengthen the hand of invasive species. Interestingly, data from Thoreau's own journals were useful in this research. Relevant snippet from the summary:

"Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species."

Here is the link thread to the paper.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/how-climate-is-changing-walden-pond.html

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2010/02/when-success-spells-defeat/

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0008878

We often walk in these woods so its fun to find information that helps us understand and appreciate our local area in more detail.

supplements

2010-02-25T14:46:00.001-05:00

Here is a great post and graphic from Information is Beautiful - http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/play/snake-oil-supplements/ that describes the posible value of various supplements. The cool thing is that the graphic is driven real-time off their updated data, so when new information comes in - the graphic is automagically updated.

I believe, to a certain extent, in the benefit of supplements. These days I take, from time to time, a multi-vitamin, fish oil, folic acid, SAM-E, l-lysine, and vitamin D.

winter wonderland

2010-02-18T17:07:00.007-05:00

After the storm.

And, from last month.

climate science accuracy, advocacy

2010-02-15T09:25:00.000-05:00

This article in the Washington Post captures some of my feelings about the issues raised by (in my opinion) carelessness in how climate science results have been communicated, or not.

See: "Series of missteps.... "

One of the fantastic qualities of the scientific method is focus on reproducibility of results; share your data, analysis, and conclusions, and others can verify or not your results. Opinion and advocacy is welcome; both are separate from the scientific process. Rely on science for scientific results; engage the political sphere to determine policy.

ICA in Boston

2010-01-17T09:12:00.000-05:00

Yesterday we visited the ICA in Boston. I was particularly interested in the Damian Ortega exhibit and found his work compelling.

Here is a photo of the ICA building as we approached from the back.

personal responsibility for health - patriotism 2.0

2010-01-08T07:59:00.006-05:00

Great blog post at Jen’s Posterous

http://hmrx.posterous.com/personal-responsibility-for-health-patriotism

This makes perfect sense to me. One problem with health care is exactly as Jen describes. Its easy for us to make poor health-related choices and then expect the heath care industry to solve our problem for us. It certainly doesn't help that our free-market economy spends billions marketing poor choices to us. And also marketing diets and exercise schemes to help us counteract our bad habits.

Not to ignore the fact that real health care issues certainly arise, but our system could probably work better if we could spend more resources on providing health care remedies (and researching medical solutions) for unavoidable or otherwise tragic diseases and injuries. Ironically, in a time of economic distress for many, it can turn out that eating better and exercising simply but with consistency, not only saves money in the short-term but can save larger heath care costs in the longer term.

dueling black holes?!

2009-10-06T15:26:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Chandra and the Chandra Photo Album, via Harvard: http://www.chandra.harvard.edu/photo/2009/ngc6240/ Wouldn't want to live in this neighborhood:

more on healthy life extension

2009-10-02T06:23:00.001-04:00

See: Living to 100 will be common in developed nations, study says from the Boston Globe, referring to recent research, to be published in The Lancet..

Snippet:

Danish specialists say that since the 20th century, people in developed countries are living about three decades longer than in the past. Surprisingly, the trend shows little sign of slowing down.

Profound changes ahead in how we think about life, its stages, and and our own personal and long-term planning. We'll need to manage new risks associated with longevity.

following James Fallows blog

2009-09-27T09:39:00.000-04:00

Always enjoyed reading his work in Atlantic, or the occasional book. Recently discovered his blog here:
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/

He incorporated a reference to this article he wrote in 1993: How the World Works. Timely for today, an analysis of economics (and capitalism) taking onto consideration the viewpoint of American and British economic orthodoxy, vs other points of view, particularly Friedrich List.

Saved here in part for future reference.

future exploration - Pillsbury State Park in NH

2009-09-20T17:17:00.002-04:00

Perhaps we'll check this out, thanks to the Globe: Rugged beauty and solitude without a long hike.

NH Division of Parks and Recreation has this to say: Pillsbury State Park.

people who died

2009-09-14T12:52:00.001-04:00

Jim Carroll joins his own list: 'Basketball Diaries' author Jim Carroll dies

I enjoyed his work back in the day.

update: Boing Boing posts an interview Jim Carroll did in 1987: http://www.boingboing.net/2009/09/14/jim-carroll-intervie.html

recently, in the White Mountains

2009-09-12T12:33:00.001-04:00

the Presidentials, and Mt Pierce to be specific:

recently, in or near Camden Maine

2009-09-03T12:48:00.004-04:00

Camden Maine, more or less. A little bit of New Harbor as well.

thinking about climate change

2009-07-23T13:06:00.000-04:00

In the past I've tried to link to thoughtful information about climate change. Here is more useful information and analysis that helps puts opinions like those of George Will in perspective.

From The Loom: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/loom/2009/07/23/george-wills-crack-fact-checkers-continue-their-nap/

monadnock 2009

2009-07-09T16:16:00.001-04:00

From our yearly hike - July 4th this year. White dot up, white cross down.

Another note - we talked to a fit guy who was doing four laps. Bottom to top four times in one day. Something to strive for?

deer and dogwoods

2009-06-25T10:15:00.000-04:00

Did I mention we're annoyed about the deer eating our dogwoods? Really annoyed? Anyway, if you look closely, you will see her at work.... (Very closely)

recently, in Cambridge

2009-06-25T10:12:00.000-04:00

recent wildlife sitings

2009-06-19T07:03:00.002-04:00

It continues to be an active year for wildlife here, including some new visitors we haven't seen before.

1. Deer continue to be present, and they're annoying us due to their taste for our dogwoods.

2. We've sees a bluish-grey hummingbird checking out our upstairs and downstairs decks. The cats are wild about it.

3. We've seen a Turkey and her 13 or 14 little turklets.
3a. But not recently.

4. We've seen a grey fox; first time ever. Perhaps related to 3a.

mt greylock

2009-05-25T16:50:00.000-04:00

Hiked some, CCC Dynamite trail was funky due to lots of fallen trees. Cleared a bit. Here are a few snaps:

recently, in or near London

2009-04-29T18:49:00.002-04:00

Mostly in Kew Gardens or Hampstead Heath.

walked yesterday at Great Meadows

2009-04-27T11:59:00.004-04:00

Here are a few photos:

Turtle, Mound (nest), Snake (look closely), Frog, and can anyone tell us if those are Grebes in the last picture? [Update: Thanks to an alert commenter those aren't Grebes, but are American Coots. Here is the Wikipedia entry to further confirm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Coot - Thanks AlanB]

why progress is hard

2009-04-16T08:18:00.001-04:00

This insightful blog post by Julian Sanchez demonstrates, here in the context of climate change debates, why making ratonal progress in the public sphere can be so hard.

see: http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/04/06/climate-change-and-argumentative-fallacies/

Money snippet:

Actually, I have a possible advantage here as a peddler of horseshit: I need only worry about what sounds plausible. If my opponent is trying to explain what’s true, he may be constrained to introduce concepts that take a while to explain and are hard to follow, trying the patience (and perhaps wounding the ego) of the audience.

challenges

2009-04-12T07:33:00.000-04:00

found this (more or less) on the web:

"View all problems as challenges.
Look upon negativities that arise as opportunities to learn and to grow.
Don't run from them, condemn yourself, or bury your burden in saintly silence.
You have a problem? Great.
More grist for the mill. Rejoice, dive in, and investigate."

2009 panic and the future

2009-01-30T09:20:00.022-05:00

From Seed, Bruce Sterling on Panic and 2009. http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2009/01/2009_will_be_a_year_of_panic.php

Seems to me that however we come out of this, things will be different for a time - new, lower benchmarks for consumer spending levels will be adopted, and some familiar brands never returning are just two examples. For a time we will close the gap with the rest of the world in standard of living by stepping back towards the mean. New models for heath care, particulary for long term care for the elderly will have to be identified because the current models are not sustainable. However over time human nature being what it is new economic growth patters will emerge and the lessons of thie period will fade.

enhancing cognition

2008-12-10T11:10:00.000-05:00

This Nature article, Towards responsible use of cognitive-enhancing drugs by the healthy, argues that society should look favorably, and responsibly of course, on the prospects of pharmacological enhancement of cognition. I see no credible arguments to the contrary. Seems to me this society does not suffer from an IQ surplus.

Providing a classic real-life example of William Gibson's famous quote: "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." in action, here is the MicroNutrient Initiative:

dedicated to ensuring that the world's most vulnerable - especially women and children - in developing countries get the vitamins and minerals they need to survive and thrive.

The irony - Some of us may struggle with the choices facing us regarding deciding to use supplements to enhance our cognitive function, while others in this world suffer undue hardship due to nutritional issues. This NYT Op-Ed piece, Raising the World’s I.Q., sheds more light on cognitive deficits resulting from nutritional deficits.

from NYT: "In Hard Times, Fear Can Impair Decision-Making"

2008-12-07T11:52:00.000-05:00

from Gregory Berns: see: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/jobs/07pre.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

in particular, the conclusion:

"...And right now there are incredible opportunities to do something differently. Yes, they’re risky, and some will fail. But while others wait for the storm to pass, I’m busy expanding into new areas. If I wait for money to start flowing again, the opportunities will have passed."

banana republic 2.0

2008-11-26T10:03:00.001-05:00

Its been my thought for some time that our national economic, social, and military policy choices have increased the likelihood that we'll turn the USA into the world's biggest banana republic. Certainly the current economic apocalypse might be a big step in that direction. More on this topic, I'm sure. For now, various outlets in the blogosphere have picked up this, I believe it originated with Barry Ritholtz. Barry blogs at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

"In doing the research for the "Bailout Nation" book, I needed a way to put the dollar amounts into proper historical perspective. If we add in the Citi bailout, the total cost now exceeds $4.6165 trillion dollars.

People have a hard time conceptualizing very large numbers, so let’s give this some context. The current Credit Crisis bailout is now the largest outlay In American history. Crunching the inflation adjusted numbers, we find the bailout has cost more than all of these big budget government expenditures – combined:

• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion
• Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion
• Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion
• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion
• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion
• The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)
• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion
• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion
• NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion

TOTAL: $3.92 trillion"

UPDATE: here is another accounting: http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/what_were_doing_--_and_spendin.php

wow - a new president-elect

2008-11-05T07:41:00.000-05:00

I, for one, welcome our new overlords.

Watched Obama's victory speech upon winning the election. Now the hard part begins, of course, but the historic nature of this election may give me an opportunity (for a time) to dial-back my customary cynicism - maybe we can make some needed progress.

It is about the future of course, and I hope this election opens the door to addressing problems in a forward-looking and effective way, not in ideological terms related to political or cultural wars of the past that seem to live on in the mental frames of most of our political leaders. The world is changing, in many ways, and prescriptions based on the model of "pick your favorite previous decade" won't cut it. We have to identify new approaches.

Anyway, most of the prediction markets and/or related polling site have been pretty accurate for some time. Interestingly most news outlets seemed to consistenly position the race as closer than it really ever was.

oops - funny McCain photo

2008-10-16T11:17:00.001-04:00

from Yahoo! News

Snowblower

2008-10-06T09:45:00.002-04:00

Our new snowblower:

predicting the 2008 presidential election

2008-10-05T10:05:00.002-04:00

So, thanks to various corners of the blogosphere, I've found a few places that predict the election, including a couple using prediction market approaches.

Here are the 2008 Presidential quotes from the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Here is FiveThirtyEight.com.

Here is Intrade Prediction Markets.

Yahoo has its Election 08 Political Dashboard.

UPDATE: here are two more (thanks Ned)

Electoral-vote.com

Election Projection.com

Mt Osceola (almost) hike

2008-09-22T18:19:00.008-04:00

Last weekend we went to the White Mountains to hike, and chose Mt Osceola. First, we drove up Friday and stayed at the Glynn House Victorian Inn in Ashland New Hampshire. We had a great time - our hosts were gracious and friendly, the inn is very well maintained, the rooms are clean and filled with amenities, evening wine was a treat, and the morning's breakfast was well-prepared and tasty.

Hiking Mt Osceola - East Peak - was a bit of a chore because we took the long path that visited the Greeley Ponds before taking us up the mountain. It was a great day, we had a great hike, and caught a few more snapshots.

fisher cat

2008-09-22T18:09:00.001-04:00

So this fella came right up to the house Sunday morning - in fact jumped on the deck and peered in through the window. Hadn't seen him since the winter....

You have to look close....

Calibri and OpenOffice.org

2008-09-22T17:46:00.001-04:00

Microsoft's Calibri font (proprietary, introduced in Vista and/or Office 2007) has bugged me because Open Office doesn't have a good default fall-back for it. Result is that documents are frequently un-readable. (Makes one wonder if this was intentional - like the old rumor about "Windows isn't done until Lotus doesn't run...")

I finally found and settled on a good solution, for me anyway, described here http://www.oooninja.com/2008/02/metrical-equivalent-fonts-and-font.html, in particular, this recipe for font replacement:

"At the OpenOffice.org level, you can specify font replacement rules. That means whenever OpenOffice.org encounters font X, it will use font Y instead.
Open any OpenOffice.org application.
Click Tools > Options.
In the tree menu under OpenOffice.org, choose Fonts.
Check the box Apply replacement table.
Type the name of the Microsoft font in Font.
In Replace with, type the name of the non-Microsoft font.
Click the green checkmark.
Repeat steps 5-7 as needed"

I replaced Calibri with Comic Sans MS and it works fine for my purposes. Thanks so much to OpenOffice.org Ninja - you rock!

Monandnock Hike

2008-09-16T15:08:00.000-04:00

Every year, and this year also. We did the White Cross trail for a change. Here are two snaps on the way up, across to one of the lesser peaks, and the path forward.

efficient, but fun

2008-09-05T16:59:00.001-04:00

Like we said, who says great mileage can't be fun? The CR-Z looks good...

more on longevity risk

2008-08-19T08:29:00.001-04:00

In the popular (?) press, see this article in the Boston Globe - Living to 95....

One assumes this will only get better (worse) as biology, health, and medical research leads to additional discoveries during the next years and decades. Besides putting pressure on individual financial planning, there will be complicated consequences for national policy.

For sure I imagine retirement age will be deferred, social security will start later and additional elder care programs will be necessary.

I guess the best point to make is that one expects this will generally be due to healthy life extension, which will let us earn more of our keep at ever later ages. Part time work anyone?

nature - from a recent morning walk

2008-08-18T07:41:00.000-04:00

MIT report on future of transportation

2008-08-09T10:21:00.000-04:00

with comprehensive focus on automotive technology choices. very helpful in understanding the different characteristics of different types of engine technologies.

report here: Fueling our Transportation Future

money quote from the summary:

"We have concluded that a 30–50% reduction in fuel consumption is feasible over the next
30 years. In the short-term, this will come as a result of improved gasoline and diesel engines
and transmissions, gasoline hybrids, and reductions in vehicle weight and drag. If these
improvements are achieved, we estimate a $1,500–$4,500 increase in vehicle costs. Over the
longer term, plug-in hybrids and later still, hydrogen fuel cells may enter the fleet in numbers
sufficient to have significant an impact on fuel use and emissions."

We can solve the climate crisis.

2008-08-06T08:05:00.001-04:00

We can solve the climate crisis.

"The We Campaign is a project of The Alliance for Climate Protection -- a nonprofit, nonpartisan effort founded by Nobel laureate former Vice President Al Gore. Our ultimate aim is to halt global warming"

Worth checking into. Organized citizens may be able to add a strong voice to the debate - otherwise the risk is policies will be driven by vested interests for their benefit.

VW concept

2008-08-06T08:00:00.002-04:00

Did I mention how cool this looks?

For more details, see this Autoblog entry, which mentions, by the way, the 55mpg rating. Green and fun...

Pickens on energy independence

2008-07-23T10:52:00.001-04:00

The Speculist embeds this video outlining T. Boone Pickens plan for US energy independence. I'm not so sure independance is the key factor, but developing multiple scalable alternatives to oil and other caron-based energy sources is nothing but a good idea.

elite performance

2008-07-09T15:59:00.001-04:00

This post (How the best of the best get better and better) from Eric Musselman's Basketball Notebook points to a HBR article about elite performance psychology. Good food for thought and possible self-improvement.
snip:

1. Learn to love the pressure. "Top sports performers don’t allow themselves to be distracted by the victories or failures of others. They concentrate on what they can control and forget the rest."

2. Set long-term goals, then outline short-term objectives and action steps. "Much of star athletes’ ability to rebound from defeat comes from an intense focus on long-term goals and aspirations. At the same time, both sports stars and their coaches are keenly aware that the road to long-term success is paved with small achievements. The trick here is to meticulously plan short-term goals so that performance will peak at major, rather than minor, events."

3. Compete against the best in order to improve. "If you hope to make it to the very top...make sure you train with the people who will push you the hardest."

4. Seek constructive criticism, feedback, and advice. "How do you motivate yourself to embark on another cycle of building the mental and physical endurance required to win the next time, especially now that you have become the benchmark? [Elite performers have] an insatiable appetite for feedback. They have a particularly strong need for instant, in the moment feedback."

5. Work hard; play hard. "Elite performers...put almost as much effort into their celebrations as they do into their accomplishments. Celebration is more than an emotional release. Done effectively, it involves a deep level of analysis and enhanced awareness. The very best performers do not move on before they have scrutinized and understood thoroughly the factors underpinning their success. Dwelling on success for too long is a distraction and, worse, leads to complacency. Celebrate—but push on."

6. An intense desire to compete. "What drives all elite performers is a fierce desire to compete—and win. That’s what truly separates elite performers from ordinary high achievers. It takes supreme, almost unimaginable grit and courage to get back into the ring and fight to the bitter end."

end-snip

Here is the original Harvard Business Review article.

The 21st century is a lot of fun...

2008-06-30T06:08:00.003-04:00

A mars sunset.

Disruptive Civil Technologies

2008-06-28T11:40:00.003-04:00

From National Intelligence Council (NIC) this report details six technologies

"with the potential to causes a noticeable-even if temporary- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of US national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion)."

The time frame is bounded by 2025, and the six technology areas include:

1. Biogerontechnology
2. Energy Storage Materials
3. Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
4. Clean Coal Technologies
5. Service Robotics
6. The Internet of Things.

Several of these are particularly interesting, including the clumsily-named Biogerontechnology - I prefer to think of it as biotech and related technologies contributing to healthy life extension. Wired this week reports on The Fight to End Aging Gains Legitimacy, Funding if you're interested in another viewpoint.

Detailed reports in PDF format are available within the report.

"Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms"

2008-06-19T19:03:00.003-04:00

from the Washington Post, Report Says Severe Weather to Increase as Earth Warms

impact snippet:

"This report addresses one of the most frequently asked questions about global warming: What will happen to weather and climate extremes?" said one of the report's two co-chairs, Thomas R. Karl, who directs of NOAA's National Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C.. He added that the report, which synthesizes the findings of more than 100 academic papers, "concludes that we are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events."

So, no surprise here I guess. Seems to me the 20th century was filled with chaos of our own making that we had the capacity to deal with. The 21st century may be filled with chaos of differing types that may be beyond our ability to deal with - with unfortunate consequences. But, I'm an optimist, relentlessly, so I assume even if some mayhem ensues, we'll come out the other side. (or maybe we're laying the groundwork for local implementation of The Great Filter.)

Here is a link to the actual report: Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

another William Gibson interview

2008-06-11T07:32:00.003-04:00

this time on IO9 (thanks IO9)

As usual, from my perspective, Gibson always provides interesting tidbits to think about. In this interview he doesn't disappoint.

Bar Harbor / Acadia

2008-06-10T08:31:00.005-04:00

We stayed a few days in Bar Harbor and enjoyed Acadia. Hiking, Bike Riding and generally a good time. If you're looking for a restaurant in Bar Harbor, we recommend Guinness & Porcelli's Italian Cuisine. If its not the best restaurant in Bar Harbor I'd be surprised!

Here are a few nature snaps:

Singularity going mainstream?

2008-06-03T17:17:00.003-04:00

You know discussion about the singularity is starting to approach the mainstream when, first, IEEE Spectrum has a special report devoted to serious discussion about the concept.

And, second, Ray Kurzweil appears on CNN interviewed by Glenn Beck. Here is the transcript.

Freeman Dyson on The Question of Global Warming

2008-06-03T13:24:00.005-04:00

Freeman Dyson discusses the subject of global warming as covered in two books in this review in The New York Review of Books.

Freeman Dyson is scary smart, clear thinking, and expresses himself logically. I find it useful to pay attention to him because he provides insight lacking in conventional opinion. I recommend reading the article.

Updates: On the political scene:

Global warming bill faces stiff GOP opposition
and,
NASA watchdog says press office distorted climate studies

On this last point - seems to me you can do the science and then have a healthy political and/or policy debate regarding what to do about the scientific results. If the scientific results are in error or have bias, other scientists will delight in exposing the problem. Something about scientific method and inquiry and all that. If you allow politicians to determine scientific results; well, then you have Lysenkoism.

"Civilization's last chance"

2008-05-19T19:43:00.002-04:00

From Bill McKibben in the LA Times: Civilization's last chance

Here is the money snippet:

There's a number -- a new number -- that makes this point most powerfully. It may now be the most important number on Earth: 350. As in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

A few weeks ago, NASA's chief climatologist, James Hansen, submitted a paper to Science magazine with several coauthors. The abstract attached to it argued -- and I have never read stronger language in a scientific paper -- that "if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm."

Also, here is McKibben's 350.org

Great Meadow Wildlife

2008-05-18T09:18:00.002-04:00

Snapped earlier this morning:

Wachusett last weekend

2008-05-18T09:06:00.003-04:00

Brief hike. We'll add Wachusett Mountain State Reservation to the rotation.

The top:

Boston, in the distance, if you can see it:

Monandnock, in the distance, if you can see it:

ethanol

2008-04-30T06:34:00.003-04:00

Is ethanol the answer? I think not, and not just because of the food vs fuel dynamic, as described here in the Washington Post: Siphoning Off Corn to Fuel Our Cars.

This column in the New York Sun by Harold Furchtgott-Roth offers useful links explaining why ethanol is not the answer.

So, probably corn-based ethanol is not the direction we should be taking for fuel diversity and supply.

We can talk about corn monoculture in another post...

from RWW: 15 of the Best Green Search Engines

2008-04-22T21:21:00.003-04:00

The ever interesting ReadWriteWeb lists 15 Green Search engines.

There are a lot of ways one could imagine a green search engine would function, or add value, and many of them are represented here.

two years

2008-04-20T18:41:00.001-04:00

Started this blog two years ago, plus a couple of weeks. Its been fun to experiment with different topics, and to record some local and family stuff. I plan to continue...

energy not growing on trees

2008-04-10T17:20:00.003-04:00

A good perspective from a scientist on the biofuels conundrum.

Seems to me the biofuel debate will get muddied by the political issues associated with agribusiness.

I do enjoy Cosmic Variance, albeit as a layman.

interloper

2008-04-10T17:15:00.002-04:00

This caused quite a stir among the feline inhabitants of the house - a territorial incursion by an interloper.

No Sun link to climate change

2008-04-03T20:37:00.004-04:00

This BBC News post refers to scientific research that indicates global warming is not solely a result of changes in the the amount of radiation from the sun. See: 'No Sun link' to climate change

Lede:

Scientists have produced further compelling evidence showing that modern-day climate change is not caused by changes in the Sun's activity.

Climate change debunkers will start to try to debunk this research as well, I suppose. Sigh.

stunned

2008-04-01T12:28:00.007-04:00

This hawk (Ruffed Grouse?) flew into our deck window. I hope he'll be ok.

UPDATE: He didn't make it. Very sad.

UPDATE 2: He was given a proper and respectful burial.

UPDATE 3: There is a suspicion he killed himself by diving into the window in a misguided attack on one of our cats.

UPDATE 4: Now there is a claim he may actually have been a Ruffed Grouse. The plot thickens...

neighbors

2008-03-30T18:40:00.003-04:00

Ed Boyden: How to Think

2008-03-18T08:07:00.003-04:00

In his Technology Review blog, Ed discusses a few thinking tips in his post subtitled: Managing brain resources in an age of complexity.

In summary:

1. Synthesize new ideas constantly.
2. Learn how to learn (rapidly).
3. Work backward from your goal.
4. Always have a long-term plan.
5. Make contingency maps.
6. Collaborate.
7. Make your mistakes quickly.
8. Write up best-practices protocols.
9. Document everything obsessively.
10. Keep it simple.

See Ed's post for details and other suggestions.

glaciers continue to retreat

2008-03-16T09:45:00.004-04:00

See this post on CNN.com. Bottom line -

Haeberli said glaciers lost an average of about a foot of ice a year between 1980 and 1999. But since the turn of the millennium the average loss has increased to about 20 inches.

Glacial melting seems like a good example of possible climate change. Its probably useful to remember the distinction between climate and weather, and this NASA article is a good place to start: What's the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

UPDATE: more context from Universe Today on arctic ice.